The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge

A mere two months in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.

In the latest match, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

According to Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against United.

His opener came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.