Trump Voters Backing Mamdani and a Emerging Progressive Alliance: Key Surprises from NYC’s Mayoral Race

Only 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there was some opposition. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.